War breaks out in Nullsec: N3/PL vs BL/Russians

confirmed Black Legion ping:
BROADCASTED MESSAGE from: elo_knight:::: we'll be going to war with n3 tomorrow so yea


News broke a few hours ago of a new major sov war in nullsec. A coalition of Black Legion, SOLAR and the DnD/-A- bloc (Stainwagon) has declared war on N3. The front line initially appears to be Catch/Immensea.

PL and N3 reacted to this news by attacking the -A- staging system at GE- and placing Sovereignty Blockade Units (SBUs).

There are already 3 pages of kills in GE-8JV for November and PL/N3 seem to be winning. The timing of the announcement was odd, BL declaring war at 1.00 when all his Russian allies were in bed.

The station is shield reinforced. The conflict is covered on TMC by Angry Moustache.

First blood - a bold strike deep into Catch aimed at taking -A-'s staging system.

The big question is whether and when the CFC might get involved.

Let's look at the background.

There's considerable rivalry between Black Legion and Pandemic Legion. Their roots as sovless mercenary/moon goo alliances, a vivid forum rivalry at Kugutsumen and a number of notable fights, including the killing of a Revenant supercap owned by PL by BL using a spy alt to set up the fight and recently the dunking of 26 BL supercaps after PL's Makalu Zarya faked getting his titan tackled.

There's an undying commitment by SOLAR to the drone regions underscored by the deadzoning of the R3PO station. This innovative tactic by PL has permanently trapped a large amount of SOLAR assets in their former staging system by use of a dummy alliance that denies docking to everyone.

-A- has something of a grudge too after PL spearheaded the HBC thrust into the South last year.

It also looks like some minor players may be involved - The Initiative, Walltreipers and Pizza are on the SOLAR blue list now.

So while there is good grounds for a war what is less clear is why there should be a war just at this moment. BL just lost 26 supers, a hell of a dent in their power. -A- and DnD have spent the last several months fighting their way out of Stain. Pandemic Legion is traditionally strong at this time of year after a lethargic summer (at least in sov terms - they won the Alliance Tournament) and N3 have had a long time to store up cash reserves.

On the other hand the aggressors don't have readily conquerable sov at stake. Sure -A- could be forced out of Catch and back to Stain but they've shown time and again an ability to bounce back from that. Both BL and SOLAR have no sov except some renter space in Querious and a station or two up in CFC-dominated space. They may simply want to fight and don't mind risking their empires such as they are.

Or they could be hoping the CFC takes their side.

The tripod is not a particularly stable structure. Power in nullsec is divided up between N3/PL in the East, CFC in the West and the Russians in the South. By committing to a fight BL is effectively inviting the CFC to play kingmaker.

Of course with GE- already SBUed and the station reinforced we could see a staging system conquered and deadzoned while the CFC is still making up its mind.

It's entirely possible of course that the CFC will decline this invitation. It will be attractive to allow their rivals to deplete their warchests while they grow rich. I imagine the CFC will be divided on this issue with their finance people wanting to sit it out, at least for a while, while their hawks want to dive in and conquer.

With a new expansion only 16 days away this couldn't have been timed better for CCP - nullsec becoming interesting just as they launch an Expansion which may substantially change the feel of Eve war.