Monday, 5 July 2010

EVE: PI Economics Overview, part 1 Demand

I'm splitting my review of PI economics into parts. Today I'll look at how the nature of what PI materials are used for will shape the PI economy. To understand the future price trends of the market we need to first look at where these materials are used.

POS Fuels

Not actually manufactured, but an intermediate planetary product. Usable immediately as POS fuel

* Coolant
* Enriched Uranium
* Mechanical Parts
* Oxygen
* Robotics


T2 parts

Most T2 manufacturing uses a PI good. Mainly P2 and P3.

* Construction Blocks
* Consumer Electronics
* Transmitter
* Guidance Systems
* Robotics
* Miniature Electronics
* Super Conductor


Miscellaneous

Created with Blueprint and PI products

* Nanite Repair Paste


Sovereignty Structures

Created with Blueprints and P4 products.

* Infrastructure Hub
* Sovereignty Blockade Unit
* Territorial Claim Unit


Starbase Structures

Created with Blueprints and P4 products.

* Assembly Array
* Control Towers
* Corporate Hangar Array
* Cynosural Generator Array
* Cynosural System Jammer
* Electronic Warfare Batteries
* Energy Neutralizing Array
* Hybrid Turret Batteries
* Jump Bridges
* Laser Turret Batteries
* Missile Batteries
* Mobile Laboratory
* Moon Harvesting Array
* Projectile Turret Batteries
* Reactors
* Refining Arrays
* Shield Hardening Arrays
* Ship Maintenance Arrays
* Silos
* System Scanning Arrays

(credit to Eve University)

POS fuel is likely to be supplied by the owner of the POS or a member of his corp. This is simply because POSes are a more advanced stage of the industrial game and PI is easily accessible. Most POS owners will not want to rely on the market for their fuel.

Nanite Repair Paste is a marginal item. It is used by pvpers to repair overheated modules when it's not safe to dock. Docking is cheaper and more convenient. That's a fairly limited demand and there are large pre-existing stockpiles.

T2 manufacture mainly uses P2s that drop as loot in missions. This means that supplying the market for these goods is subject to competition from mission runners who will cheerfully sell cheap to get whatever they can for this incidental loot. There are large pre-existing stockpiles of mission loot. Also, as with POS fuel, T2 manufacture is done by advanced industrialist players most of whom will do PI for themselves.

Therefore structures are where most of the money will be spent buying PI goods. There may be a particular crunch on Sovereignty Structures as they are used by people who don't make them. Stockpiling SBUs and then timing your supply of them to markets that support nullsec players who become involved in major wars should be a very viable tactic. For instance next time the Northern Coalition gets invaded you should be able to sell a lot of SBUs in Vuorassi since that is the closest high sec system to the NC staging post at H-W.

SBUs are used both offensively and defensively and are consumed by use. Many more of this structure will be used than of the other two sov structures. This is the materials list for a SBU:

Capital Construction Parts: 5
Broadcast Node: 13
Integrity Response Drones: 9
Nano-Factory: 19
Organic Mortar Applicators: 19
Recursive Computing Module: 13
Self-Harmonizing Power Core: 13
Sterile Conduits: 19
Wetware Mainframe: 9

Note that the quantities are quite uneven. The P4s where 19 are needed per SBU are likely to spike in price during times of major nullsec war.

POSes are very widely used and have a similarly uneven pattern of P4 use. Large control towers use:

Capital Construction Parts: 8
Broadcast Node: 18
Integrity Response Drones: 32
Nano-Factory: 26
Organic Mortar Applicators: 28
Recursive Computing Module: 18
Self-Harmonizing Power Core: 18
Sterile Conduits: 28
Wetware Mainframe: 12

All races uses the same materials; medium towers use half as much and small towers approximately one third as much.

So we can project the market's demand for PI materials as being quite skewed. Nano-Factory, Organic Mortar Applicators and Sterile Conduits will see more heavy demand than other p4s, especially in time of heavy nullsec fighting.

In my next post I'll be looking at the supply to the market which will also be skewed.

Sunday, 4 July 2010

Games as art: economic implications

People have been talking rather a lot recently about whether video games are art. Roger Ebert, a film critic with very little knowledge of games, told everyone that they weren't. People got rather cross with him. Gabe at Penny Arcade pulled rank. And now Ebert's revisited the issue saying they're still not art but he wishes he'd never told anyone.Which Lum found funny.

In all the excitement one aspect that everyone seems to be missing is that there's a lot of money to be made in being considered art.

In the UK films get money because they are "art". They get tax breaks:

# For films with a total core expenditure of £20 million or less, the film production company can claim payable cash rebate of up to 25% of UK qualifying film production expenditure;
# For films with a core expenditure of more than £20 million, the film production company can claim a payable cash rebate of up to 20% of UK qualifying film production expenditure;


They are eligible for grants: from the Film Council alone there's a film making fund, a printing and advertising fund, a training fund, regional film funds and like any business they may be eligible for other grants like the European Regional Development Fund. They may also be eligible for National Lottery money some of which supports sport and the arts.

Games development companies on the other hand are considered businesses of no intrinsic cultural value. An attempt to stimulate the industry here was promoted mainly on economic grounds rather than cultural grounds.
Our research shows that Games Tax Relief over a five year period should create or protect 3,550 graduate level jobs, increase or safeguard £457 million in development expenditure and encourage developers to adopt new business models and create new Intellectual Property.

Recently the Con-Lib government decided not to go ahead with their predecessor's plans in this area to the dismay of the industry.

Ebert is wrong, games are art and their creation is of great cultural value to the nation. The best way forward for the British industry is to keep this issue burning and address the entertainment divide where the entertainment that some people enjoy is subsidised but the entertainment other people enjoy is not. Oxford Economics estimates that film tax relief generates £13 GDP for every £1 invested. Is it not time we pressed again the issue of game tax relief? Not only because games celebrate and explore our culture. But because as a country WE NEED THE MONEY!

Saturday, 3 July 2010

Eve: PI in practice

Having worked out my strategy I've spent a week implementing it and rather enjoyed it.

It's not for everyone. It's complicated for the sake of being complicated, fiddly and rather time consuming to start with. I'm sure it's not made me anything like as much as the same time spent running level 4 missions would have.

You need to start off by working out roughly what your structure will look like. I went with the layout used in this Eve Uni video: a launchpad with a ring of processors around it near my extractors. They call it a single hub star network.

As explained in the video you need to position yourself near where your resources spawn. So the first thing you need to do is work out, based on your production aims, how much of each resource you will need.

On my Ocean planet I want to produce Test cultures, Fertiliser and Livestock. This will require the following P0 inputs:
Carbon compounds
Complex organisms (twice)
Micro organisms (twice)
Aqueous liquids

These P0s, when processed, make the P1s that go into the P2s I am trying to make.

I start my scanning by looking for a spot where a good complex organisms spot is near a good micro organisms spot. There are a couple of possibilities so I check the other resources and eventually find a spot where all 4 resources are nearby.

I had an interface issue at this stage. I found it very hard to get the slider in the Scan view to move. It is quite fiddly, just make sure you have your mouse pointer in the rainbow coloured section and you should be able to slide it from left to right. Eventually I worked it out and was able to adjust my scans so that they showed small white peaks for high resource concentrations. You sometimes need to adjust it as you move from one resource to another - if you see a huge swathe of white move the slider to the right to get smaller peaks.

I began my harvesting by putting down 6 extractors: one carbon compounds, two complex organisms, two micro organisms, one aqueous liquids. I didn't worry too much about the varying output - all my extractors are on white peaks so they all produce reasonably well. My best is 1526 and my worst is 1373 which is close enough. If I had had a terribly low spot I might have had to double up one of the weaker ones.

Each extractor is routed to the launchpad and I built up a nice little store of P0 resources a few hours later. It's quite easy to miss a routing so check that everything you expected to see has turned up.

Around my launchpad I placed a basic processor for each P1 product and an advanced processor for each P2 product.

Each Basic processor needed two routes: an outgoing route to the launchpad and an incoming route bringing the P0 resource. I didn't see any way to set this up in advance, I had to wait until I had a stockpile of P0 resources in the launchpad before I could route it to the processor.

So after a few hours I was able to set up my P1 production chains:
Carbon Compounds > Biofuels
Aqueous liquids > Water
Complex organisms > Proteins
Micro organisms > Bacteria

I left it a few more hours then set up my P2 production chains. Each P2 requires 3 routes each. You will later be able to check your P2 processors are working by opening the Routes view and checking it has all 3.

What I found was that where a resource was required by two competing processors once I had routed it to one I was unable to route it to the other processor that needed it since my stockpile had vanished out of my launchpad.

So, as much by luck as by judgment I set up
Proteins and Biofuels > Livestock
Bacteria and Water > Test cultures

The next day I was able to set up
Bacteria and Proteins > Fertilizer

If I had set up the fertilizer first I would have had to wait for both the other two.

My Advanced Command Centre has 17000 MW power grid and I wasn't using it all. After a couple of days I decided to put down another Basic processor as I had stockpiles of some P0 resources built up. That was due to using short duration extraction cycles that produce more and to being a little slow to get the processing started. It was useful in the first week but I'll remove it after I write this post as it isn't doing much now that I've switched to 23 hour cycles.

Your stockpiles are your indicator of whether everything is set up right. If you are stockpiling a p1 or p0 product that should be being processed into something higher you need to check your set up. Click each processor, choose the route window and count the number of routes. Every basic processor should have two routes and every advanced processor should have three routes.

After leaving it a few days to settle down I decided to spend the rest of my grid on this planet. I had enough surplus grid to put down an extra Complex Organisms, an extra carbon compounds extractor. I was just short of the grid I needed to drop an extra processor for another resource in the white spots. However by dropping a processor right near my launchpad and consequently being able to use a very short link I did have enough to drop an extractor in a sub-optimal place. Well better than leaving the grid unused - I set up an aqueous liquid extractor by my base. It produces 1346 per cycle instead of 1524.

I've just turned to the issue of the grid I am freeing up by deleting by extra basic processor. I had 871 grid free. A micro organisms extractor costs 800. 71 grid really isn't a lot to play with. I control clicked my launchpad and moved the link towards my micro organisms spawn. Not enough to get even near the red but even on green it's worth something. I guesstimated 71 grid and plonked my processor down. It's actually 65 grid's worth of link away from the launchpad which is close enough. It produces 883 per cycle, a lot worse than the 1500 I get from most of my extractors but better than nothing.

The stored goods are looking really efficient. The only thing I have in my launchpad are Fertilizer, Test cultures and Livestock. I have no P0s or P1s building up at all! 100% efficiency. 1717 m3 out of 10000m3 room. I also have some storage (500 m3) in my command centre which is not linked to anything.

At some point I will launch my p2s and use them to make p3s on one of my other planets. Looks like it will be a few weeks before I need to worry about that.

So that's my Ocean planet. I also have 4 other planets and in about a month will add a 6th. But you get the idea of my methodology, the same methods but for different resources apply to my set-ups on the other planets. So far I have only done P0 to P2. Eventually I'd like to be producing P4 down there and perhaps even have a POS down there and be manufacturing POS parts.

Saturday, 26 June 2010

EVE: PI strategy

I decided to use the various PI guides as a clue about what not to make. Most guides point you to the P3 products that can be produced using a single planet. These are:
Condensates (Gas)
Industrial Explosives (Temperate)
Robotics (Plasma)
Smartfab units (Lava)
Synthetic synapses (Ice)
Transcranial microcontrollers (Barren)
Ukomi Super Conductors (Storm)
Vaccines (Ocean)

Next I scouted around for a system. I used the DOTLAN Eve maps site to look for low traffic lowsec systems in my target area. I wanted to try lowsec, higher risk but higher rewards. My best defence is very low traffic. I also do my PI in a Mastodon Blockade Runner with an improved cloak and 2 extra warp core stabs. It needs at least 3 players to jam me to stop me warping to safety (unless I meet one of the very few players who fit multiple scramblers) and it has some shield tank. Basically it's tough enough that I don't have to go hide as soon as one player appears on Local.

I set the display in DOTLAN to show jumps in the last 24 hours then viewed a couple of regions looking at jumps per system. I found one with no stations, only 50 jumps in the last 24 hours, no player kills in the last 24 hours, 12 planets and 0.2 security status. I had wanted a sec below 0.4 as I'd like to set up a pos there too and I may as well put my pos somewhere I can moon mine. It's also a cul-de-sac.

OK, so what do I have to work with now that I've selected my system? It has plasma, oceanic, lava, barren and gas planets. I favour restricting all my activities to this one system as it will hopefully make me less noticeable.

With those planet types to work with these are the p3 products that require more than one planet type that can be built in my system:
Biotech Research Reports
Cryoprotectant Solutions
Guidance Systems
Neocoms
Supercomputers

and these are the p4 products that can be made in my system:
Organic Mortar Applicators
Sterile conduit
Wetware mainframe

OK, so I have my overall plan - I'll build those p3 and p4 products and sell them. Later on I may look at building POS structures using what I produce plus products I buy on the open market but for now I'm aiming for production of p3 products that aren't on the beginner's guide to PI recommended list.

I build my transport ship at Jita and fly off. My destination is almost 40 jumps away but I can autopilot most of it afk while watching the World Cup. Just before I get to low sec I refresh my cloak procedure.

First open Local and look to see how many people are there and whether there's any smack. Local will continue to be a critical intel system.
Jump
Hold cloak and see what's there. Nothing visible doesn't mean it's safe.
Click the align button and as soon as my speedometer reads non-zero press F1 (cloak) once. I will now align while cloaked having given a tiny window to any possible gankers
Wait for speed to reach max
At max speed hover over the warp button then in very quick succession hit F1 to decloak then click the Warp To button

I reach my system without incident. There are two players there which is two too many really, my first priority has to be safety.

I warp to the sun and halfway there I bookmark a place. On landing I cloak and align back to the gate. Then I decloak and warp to my saved spot. I cloak. OK, great I now feel safe, even with other people around.

Time to check out the others. One guy is in what appears to be an industrial corporation and is 4 months old. The other guy is in the same corp and is 3 years old. I'm guessing other PIers although they could be miners. I'll have to be a little bit careful. While they may not be in gank ships my guess is they really won't want me around in this nice quiet little corner of space and they may have friends.

Still I can perfectly well scan the planets from my nice safe spot. I look at the plasma planet. I now realise that I need to plan out my production chains. OK here goes:

Biotech Research Reports
Micro Organisms > Bacteria, Base metals > Reactive metals > Nanites
Carbon compounds > Biofuels, Complex Organisms > Proteins > Livestock
Base metals > Reactive metals, Heavy metals > Toxic metals > Construction blocks

Cryoprotectant Solutions
Aqueous liquids > Water, Micro Organisms > Bacteria > Test cultures
Noble Gas > Oxygen, Ionic Solutions > Electrolytes > Synthetic Oil
Complex Organisms > Proteins, Micro Organisms > Bacteria > Fertiliser

Guidance Systems
Aqueous liquids > Water, Base Metals > Reactive Metals > Water-cooled CPU
Non-CS Crystals > Chiral Structures, Suspended Plasma > Plasmoids > Transmitter

Neocoms
Noble Metals > Precious Metals, Carbon Compunds > Biofuels > Biocells
Felsic Magma > Silicon, Reactive Gas > Oxidising Compound > Silicate glass

Supercomputers
Aqueous liquids > Water, Base Metals > Reactive Metals > Water-cooled CPU
Aqueous liquids > Water, Ionic Solutions > Electrolytes > Coolant
Non-CS Crystals > Chiral Structures, Heavy metals > Toxic Metals > Consumer Electronics

OK, my first impression is a lot of this will come from my Plasma planet. That suggests that I want mainly extractors there and should look to process on the other planets.

Let's take a better look at that by expressing the above list using planet type instead of resource name (only planet types available in-system listed):

Biotech Research Reports
Barren or Ocean, Barren Gas Lava or Plasma > Nanites
Barren or Ocean, Ocean > Livestock
Barren Gas Lava or Plasma, Lava or Plasma > Construction blocks

Cryoprotectant Solutions
Barren Gas or Ocean, Barren or Ocean > Test cultures
Gas, Gas > Synthetic Oil
Ocean, Barren or Ocean > Fertiliser

Guidance Systems
Barren Gas or Ocean, Barren Gas Lava or Plasma > Water-cooled CPU
Lava or Plasma, Lava or Plasma > Transmitter

Neocoms
Barren Gas Lava or Plasma, Barren or Ocean > Biocells
Lava, Gas > Silicate glass

Supercomputers
Barren Gas or Ocean, Barren Gas Lava or Plasma > Water-cooled CPU
Barren Gas or Ocean, Gas > Coolant
Lava or Plasma, Lava or Plasma > Consumer Electronics

This is giving us a picture now of the structure we will need to set up. Here's what it looks like when we narrow it down to P2s that can be produced on a single planet wherever possible:

Biotech Research Reports
Barren > Nanites
Ocean > Livestock
Lava or Plasma > Construction blocks

Cryoprotectant Solutions
Barren or Ocean > Test cultures
Gas > Synthetic Oil
Ocean > Fertiliser

Guidance Systems
Barren or Gas > Water-cooled CPU
Lava or Plasma > Transmitter

Neocoms
Barren > Biocells
Lava, Gas > Silicate glass

Supercomputers
Barren or Gas > Water-cooled CPU
Gas > Coolant
Lava or Plasma > Consumer Electronics

So one P2 (Silicate glass) can't be made on a single planet out of the planets available. Here's a breakdown according to how many P2s can be produced on each of my 5 planet types

Barren 2-5
Gas* 2-5
Lava* 0-4
Ocean 1-3
Plasma 0-3
* silicate gas will be made on one of these with P1 resources imported from the other asterisked type.

Well well, first appearances were deceptive. Plasma is actually the least used with no P2s requiring plasma and only 3 for which the plasma planet is an option.

Let's do some allocating:
Barren - Biocells, Nanites, Water-cooled CPU
Gas - Coolant, Water-cooled CPU, Synthetic Oil
Lava - Silicate Glass (with imports from Gas), Construction Blocks
Ocean - Test cultures, Fertiliser, Livestock
Plasma - Consumer Electronics, Transmitter

Two planets, Plasma and Lava, have only 2 P2 products making them most suitable for P3 production, the capacity being more useful for extraction on the other planets.

I'll stop here, I hope that gives a good overview of the planning process. To follow:
- setting up the PI
- market analysis
- review at some point in the future of how it worked out

Monday, 21 June 2010

MMOs: Acting styles

There's a huge factor in MMO success that goes largely unrecognised - the style in which the NPCs act.

I'm going to explain the two main different acting styles and then go on to give examples of how one style brings a MMO to life and the other makes it dull.

Let's start with a little history. In Shakespeare's time theatres were nothing like the polite and well-ordered places they are today. They were busier, they appealed to all members of the public, not just an intellectual minority, they were rowdy. Here's a short explanation.

To act effectively in that environment required eye-catching dramatic body language and booming voices with powerful projection.

Fast forward to the twentieth century and technology changed the ways in which actors could transmit story to audiences. Film and television focus completely on the actor with no distractions or background noise. Even theatres had become polite and quiet.

This led to the rise in popularity of method acting. Method acting is a naturalistic style that seeks to imitate the source. A method actor portraying a man digging a road wants to look exactly like a man digging a road. An old school actor would be trying to convey the feeling of digging roads: exaggerated shoves of the shovel, laboured sighs as he lifted a great load of earth, frequent mopping of the brow to convey the onerous and exhausting manual nature of his task.

Film and television critics have tended to support method acting. Old school acting techniques are called "hammy" and "overacted".

This has led to a bizarre blind spot in modern culture where many people believe that the best way to act is to accurately imitate rather than to entertain. Even when it's obvious that a commanding compelling majestic performance of emotional range is far more interesting to watch.

Spot the ham

Here are two cast photos. Both contain a member of the cast who is a veteran Shakespearean actor who uses old school techniques to add gravitas and emotional depth to somewhat trite sci fi plots.





Acting is where it's at, dumbass

Recent films like Avatar have stressed high tech effects over acting. For an example of just how unimportant effects are here's a clip from an old Doctor Who episode in which the Doctor and the Master confront an alien evil. See what they are battling so compellingly? It's a lava lamp.

You're drawn in by Jon Pertwee's tortured expressions and then Roger Delgado's convincing depiction of a man struggling across a room against great unseen forces. The programme doesn't need to show the forces, it just needs good actors.

The key to it is an actor who can project themselves so as to be interesting to watch. Many years ago long-running TV show Happy Days hired an actor to play a small role in one of its episodes. They got a man who was so fascinating to watch that audiences simply couldn't get enough of him and people are still fascinated by him whenever he appears.

On the set of 1976 film Marathon Man Dustin Hoffman was preparing for a scene in which he had to appear exhausted. Having stayed up all night he was setting off to run around the race track. Laurence Olivier asked him what he was doing. Hoffman replied I have to appear tired in my next scene. Olivier replied "Try acting."

What is old school acting and how is it done

Your goal is not to imitate it's to evoke. Exaggerated gestures, wild arm-waving, movement of the facial features, variance of the tone of voice are all elements. A person dying might fling their arms wide, scream, fall over, roll around. shout "I'm dying" and then slump dramatically. This isn't actually very like how people actually die, even when shot. You're conveying dying not mimicking it.

What's all this got to do with MMOs?

Simply that hammy acting works and method acting doesn't.


Warchief Thrall kneeling dramatically


Casilda, whore by night, method actor by day. So undemonstrative they had to physically tie her arms in place for this dramatic pose.


Ratongas - the Robin Williamses of EQ2.


Eve player - wooden.

Thursday, 17 June 2010

SWTOR: What they say, What they mean.

Here's a handy translation guide for those of you following the SWTOR hype train.

This feature is very similar to WoW - This is a feature none of us give a shit about.

This is a feature we haven't talked about much yet - This is a feature we haven't worked on much yet.

We've added a 4th pillar to MMO gaming - We kinda glossed over the first three.

Player ship - Player house with a window showing stars outside.

Companion character - Shaggable healer pet. Presumably sparkly shaggable healer pets will be added at some stage for only $25 for a limited time only.

"the time we are dedicating to it will have a huge pay-off for the viewers" - and us (we hope).

cinematic trailer - the game we'd prefer to make but can't.

Wednesday, 16 June 2010

AoC: Billing update

Funcom have now sorted out my billing issues previously mentioned including canceling an order I clicked by mistake when I thought I was re-entering my order for the expansion but in fact added an additional order for the Collector's Edition and crediting me with 5 free days for the time I was locked out of the game.

So while I'm not impressed with their billing system being set up to punish people who cancel automatic re-subscription (which surely anyone with any sense does?) top marks to their Customer Service team for efficiency.