Is Fountain falling?

The spirited defence of Fountain by Test alliance may be finally coming to an end. In the last few days the CFC has broken out of the north-east corner and made very rapid sov gains. Here's the current sov map:

35 conquerable systems are held by Goons with 2 more currently sovless (and about to fall to the Goons). There are 109 conquerable systems in Fountain.

Perhaps even more ominous is the very rapid progress the CFC has made in the last few days. Since the 21st July they've gained 24 Fountain systems.

What changed?

The key thing that changed is the distraction of our allies. In addition to PL's distraction with the Alliance Tournament PL and N3 have been drawn into conflict in the East against ROGUE and SOLAR. For Test the conflict is unsustainable if isolated - Test + Tribe is about 13000 accounts, the CFC is about 32000 accounts and both wealthier and older.

Another key element, a result of this, is that the CFC is confident about using supercaps. Nullsec game mechanics are an interesting balance of multiple opposing vectors. It's risky to use supercaps if the enemy has subcap superiority, it's painful to grind sov in subcaps, deployed supercaps can get into trouble very quickly because once a fight escalates to the point of tidi your supercaps are trapped in slow motion while reinforcements, new sides and tourists can race to join the fight in normal time.

So is Fountain falling?

As a line member the short answer is I don't know. We are at the point where it will fall quickly unless we get help but at the grunt level we have no idea whether our friends can fit us into their busy priority list.

However losing about 5-6 systems a day would suggest Fountain won't last longer than the Alliance Tournament so hopes that PL will finish there and come save us just aren't realistic.

Can we turn it around? At this stage the best Test can do is slow it down and make it as painful and drawn out as possible while our leaders explore diplomatic options. Maybe SOLAR could be turned if promised Cobalt Edge.

One problem is the lack of players in nullsec sov. With most of the big alliances/coalitions already involved there simply aren't many non-committed players who could change the political landscape.