Sunday, 16 February 2014

Nullsec Eve: the shape of things to come

Exciting times in null as we see the closing stages of the first great universal empire.

First kudos to Goons for effectively conquering sovereign Eve. With the announcement last night that the CFC will spend the next week hellcamping N3 we now see a nullsec where every significant sov holder has either been allied by the Goons, has a contractual arrangement with the Goons or is being hellcamped by the Goons or has disintegrated completely.

So what comes next?

At some point soon the CFC will draw a line under the campaign against N3. By the end of the week most of N3 will be dormant while they wait for the CFC to leave them alone. It seems unlikely to me that Goons will go after PL, it's too useful to have a major enemy that they can control and make deals with.

They can stamp down some of the small pests staging from NPC nullsec like Black Legion (with whom I fly) and Gang Bang Team but that's very limited pvp content. Stage close, melt the towers, play cat and mouse with fleets, the CFC trying to show us a small enough fleet to encourage us to engage then drop the hammer, while we will hope to run in, snatch the cheese then run off quick before the trap gets sprung.

We won't see another titan battle for some time. (Titans ganks are a distinct possibility).

But we're inevitably drawing closer and closer to the time when the Goons are forced to break up the CFC.

With the beating of N3 almost over and if I'm right that they won't go after PL the only other major space holders are the Russian alliances. That would be a poor campaign for the CFC - the Russians are too outnumbered alone but strong enough that a PL-N3-Russian alliance could be difficult. (After all N3 won't really die nor even lose appreciable strength, it'll just wait out the storm with its assets safely logged out). Plus the Goons love a forum confrontation which they won't get against the Russians who mostly never use the English-speaking forums.

So at some point during 2014 the CFC will fragment.

Soon someone in the CFC will be isolated and pilloried.

Here's how I think it will happen:

- first there needs to be an excuse. Someone will do something somewhere that the Goons find unacceptable in a CFC member and will "make an example" of the offender(s)

- the Goons will probably look to reset enough of the CFC to make for an interesting fight but not so much that they lose.

- the Goons probably already know who is going to get expelled from the CFC.

- a narrative that makes Goons the honest victims of their targets treachery will be manufactured and widely taken as true.

- there's an outside chance that the Goons will reset everyone in the CFC and take on all comers in a heroic Alamo style pitched defence. Especially if Mittens steps down as leader.

The breakup of the CFC will offer opportunities for all the smaller sov-capable alliances like BL, N3 (probably rebranded), Evoke, Triumvirate and so on.

We are also likely to see a change during the summer to power projection, especially if Eve has a boring Spring.

1 comment:

  1. Hmm, that's an interesting prediction. I'm not sure it'll happen exactly like this, but if CFC's current enemies indeed end up being incapable or unwilling to fight them any longer, then sooner or later the CFC will need to create another enemy to fight. I don't believe most CFC players will be happy concentrating on ratting and incursions, with no big PvP battles any more.