tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8829401646612727780.post7930466556745842556..comments2024-02-07T08:32:53.306+00:00Comments on Stabbed Up: Diablo 3: The economy in numbersUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8829401646612727780.post-55823393355151101552011-08-31T11:54:02.279+01:002011-08-31T11:54:02.279+01:00If D3 is as big, as transformative, as I think it&...If D3 is as big, as transformative, as I think it's going to be we'll see a radical change in the Asian RMT industries.<br /><br />Most likely is that a lot of the unskilled gold farmers get laid off and replaced by skilled professionals who work in synergistic teams. Unskilled workers will get made redundant because in the new paradigm they are redundant.<br /><br />Character leveling is though, as you say, a task that could remain viable for the unskilled.Stabshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08716211705647213383noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8829401646612727780.post-10296724478028767162011-08-30T14:58:57.625+01:002011-08-30T14:58:57.625+01:00me too, I remember leveling a Deathknight to serve...me too, I remember leveling a Deathknight to server 5th or something, and it was a blast.<br />Unlike the level grind at a wow expanision, which is more a sprint I expect this to be more like a marathon.<br /><br />Which offers the question, run or let run?<br />If i would own a chinese farming agency, i would try to let my unskilled workers grind chars up in shifts and sell them to people wanting to get a rested start into inferno. With this business approach I could use the skill level of each worker optimal, as i would have teams for say 1-20, 20-40, 40-60 for each class, so each worker gets experience only in the level range he needs.Christofnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8829401646612727780.post-63695080223593886322011-08-30T14:41:15.182+01:002011-08-30T14:41:15.182+01:00I think that's essentially right Christof. Tha...I think that's essentially right Christof. That's what I was saying last week, that I'd aim to get straight to farming Inferno as soon as possible.Stabshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08716211705647213383noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8829401646612727780.post-90200800427722568702011-08-30T14:25:23.489+01:002011-08-30T14:25:23.489+01:00What I consider an interessting question, how will...What I consider an interessting question, how will the influx of money into the economy be structured?<br /><br />Lets say we have 10% players (called buyer, the other groups will be called normal players and fast levelers) willing to spend money, who buy in at the start of the game. <br />As I cant imagine someone spending money on common drops, I guess they will buy three things: characters, gold and exceptional items ( uniques/epics from all the game and rare inferno level drops).<br />In WoW as in Diablo2 and nearly all RPG games, gold drop rates are growing fast with levels, so most of the gold in the economy will be farmed by high level characters either in inferno or if inferno is to though for them, farming weak monsters fast in hell.<br />Together with the fact of the best items dropping in inferno, but being usable by hell chars of the right level, leveling fast to lvl 60 and farming like a madman should be very lucrative, espacially if the "Game difficulty will play a big part." comment about proffessional farmers is true.<br />So the big crowd wont be able to sell gold and wont be willing to sell their character. That leaves Unique/Epic item drops for the normal players. The gained money will be valuable to them and they will only use it for the mentioned above "valuable" items and gold. I forgot the runes, if they are rare like runes in D2 (i remember to have read that the best ones only drop in inferno) they will too be "valuable" items. So the normal players will buy these vauable goods from the fast levelers or unique/epic drops from eachother. The fast levelers dont need any items the normals have to buy, as i assume that a lvl 60 inferno rare sword drop should be better than say a lvl 40 unique sword.<br /><br /><br /><br />Conclusion: in the time until most players have a max lvl inferno running character, the circuit of money should look this way:<br /><br />Buyers: deposit money at blizzard, make most purchases of fast levelers, a smaller amout of purchase from the normal players.<br /><br />Normal players: sell valuable random epics, spend that money later for stuff the fast levelers farmed or other normal players got at random<br /><br />fast levelers: all the money ends up here, $$$<br /><br /><br />I dont know how long this golden state for powerlevers will last, as I dont know how many hours and what skill level it takes to reach inferno farm status. My guess would be around one to three monthes.<br /><br />The posibility of buy/selling chars isnt figured in, but the expected profits of the first inferno farm chars will doubtlessly drive the price up.Christofnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8829401646612727780.post-36227670129658970082011-08-30T11:57:33.534+01:002011-08-30T11:57:33.534+01:00I do think though, that despite it's being gue...I do think though, that despite it's being guesswork the statement that 99.9% of players will never make anything does not apply.<br /><br />One in three is a widely accepted figure for how many people illegally buy stuff in games like WoW. There are enough buyers to ensure that if you find a half-decent legendary you don't want early on in D3 you'll get more than a couple of cents for it.<br /><br />So the playing model of - never buying, keeping suitable items, selling off top end items you don't need will probably pay for the box.Stabshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08716211705647213383noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8829401646612727780.post-88138960684227128632011-08-30T09:32:31.421+01:002011-08-30T09:32:31.421+01:00I know. We're theorycrafting here, using the s...I know. We're theorycrafting here, using the sources we have.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12758991239620090836noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8829401646612727780.post-1341799825034152172011-08-30T09:17:30.088+01:002011-08-30T09:17:30.088+01:00you are comparing apples to oranges Loque, to test...you are comparing apples to oranges Loque, to test the market in WoW you would need to have loot of the current heroic raid for sale.<br />And i get more people would want that, than a cute cosmetic pet.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8829401646612727780.post-82680673069898188732011-08-30T08:32:30.639+01:002011-08-30T08:32:30.639+01:00Let me contribute using a WoW example and let'...Let me contribute using a WoW example and let's see how many people are interested in spending real dollars for virtual ingame items (vanity pets).<br /><br />According to this link<br /><br />http://www.vg247.com/2011/08/03/wows-cenarion-hatchling-raises-over-1-9-million-for-japan-earthquake-relief/<br /><br />the vanity pet raised over $1.9 million in sales. Each pet sold for 10$ and it was account-bound. So we have a total of 190.000 units sold.<br /><br />How many people play WoW? According to this article:<br /><br />http://gogogamer.net/?p=3180<br /><br />we have 11.1 million subscriptions (worldwide) by the end of June, so 1 month before the pet's sales.<br /><br />So, in the end, how many customers decided to spend 10$ for the ingame pet?<br /><br />11.1 mil / 190.000 => 1 player every 58 decided to buy it. <br /><br />So, in the end, 1.7% is the amount of subscribers (worldwide) who actually spent real dollars for the charity pet.<br /><br />Considering that "charity" gives a lot of motivation (so you can say YES, I spent real money but I did that for Japan!), I imagine that common virtual items (non charity-related) will sell much less.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12758991239620090836noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8829401646612727780.post-36521599960344490772011-08-29T22:34:22.039+01:002011-08-29T22:34:22.039+01:00Guilty as charged, it's a guess, just a guess ...Guilty as charged, it's a guess, just a guess really.Stabshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08716211705647213383noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8829401646612727780.post-46031855678985054992011-08-29T21:05:23.413+01:002011-08-29T21:05:23.413+01:00Well this one was a very interesting analysis, goo...Well this one was a very interesting analysis, good reading (I love blogs). That said, the only problem I see here is just one: too many assumptions, speculations, guesses and (clever) theorycrafting.<br /><br />I understand you love this kind of stuff (as you explained us, you love numbers) but this specific analysis would need a lot more solid/verified numbers. <br /><br />I'm glad I could poke you and stimulate your mind :)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12758991239620090836noreply@blogger.com